The NCM says El Niño is 96% likely to persist into March 2027, but that probability refers to the phenomenon itself, not to heavy rain in the UAE.
News Today DeskNCM says El Niño is 96% likely to last until March 2027, but heavy rain isn't guaranteed.See all figures
The NCM spokesperson explained that El Niño may indirectly affect wind patterns and the tracks of low-pressure systems in the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula, which in turn can change the chances of rainfall. The centre's seasonal outlook also points to temperatures and rainfall in the UAE being near or above normal during this period.
A 96% chance of El Niño lasting does not mean a 96% chance of rain. Heavy rain depends on moisture, wind direction and weather systems, so keep an eye on daily NCM updates rather than planning around the El Niño figure alone.
The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) says El Niño is growing stronger and has a 96% probability of lasting from November 2026 to March 2027, with its effects possibly reaching into April. That figure, though, describes the climate pattern itself. It is not a forecast of heavy rain, and the NCM has been clear that strong rain is not guaranteed.
It helps to separate two ideas. The 96% is the likelihood that El Niño sticks around. Whether rain falls, and how heavily, is a separate question.
According to the NCM, rainfall depends on several things coming together:
When these line up, rain becomes more likely, and in some cases it can be heavy. El Niño's strength on its own does not determine how much rain falls or how intense it is.
The NCM forecasts fair to partly cloudy conditions today, with a chance of some convective cloud formation eastward and northward linked to rainfall. Khaleej Times reports that rain is likely on Saturday, October 31, and that temperatures will dip to 19°C in some areas.
Highs of up to 39°C are expected in some areas, with Abu Dhabi and Dubai reaching up to 35°C. Both emirates will see lows of 26°C. Humidity this weekend is expected to be lower than in recent weeks, topping out at 70% in Dubai and 60% in Abu Dhabi, with a chance of mist in coastal regions.
Light to moderate winds, fresh to strong at times, may cause blowing dust. Winds are expected to reach up to 55 kmph in places.
If you are heading to the beach, the NCM forecasts slight sea conditions in both the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Waves can reach up to two feet on-shore and up to three feet off-shore, which is manageable for most swimmers, though you should still check conditions before going into the water.
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Over the next few months, the most useful thing to watch is the day-to-day NCM forecast rather than the El Niño figure. The seasonal outlook suggests temperatures and rainfall may run near or above normal through to March, so residents should be ready for changeable days rather than assume a particular pattern.
For more on fuel costs this season, see UAE fuel prices November 2026: petrol and diesel go down, and for travel news, read Etihad Rail sells 120,000 tickets in first 30 days of national network.
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