
Will the UAE See Heavy Rain? NCM Explains the 96% El Niño Forecast
The NCM says El Niño is 96% likely to persist into March 2027, but that probability refers to the phenomenon itself, not to heavy rain in the UAE.
UAE petrol prices fall in November 2026, the first cut in four months, even though global oil prices rose in October.
News Today DeskSpecial 95 petrol drops 24 fils to AED 4.04 a litre from 1 November 2026.See all prices
The UAE Fuel Price Committee has approved the following prices, which apply from 1 November 2026.
Every grade of petrol and diesel gets cheaper from 1 November 2026, so a full tank will cost you less than it did in October. Prices are still well above where they were in February, so don't expect a return to pre-war levels soon.

UAE petrol prices fall from 1 November 2026, with Super 98 dropping to AED 4.16 per litre. It's the first cut in four months, and it came as a surprise, because global oil prices rose sharply in October. Every grade of petrol and diesel is cheaper this month, so it's worth knowing the new rates before your next fill-up.
| Fuel grade | October 2026 | November 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super 98 petrol | AED 4.40 per litre | AED 4.16 per litre | 24 fils down |
| Special 95 petrol | AED 4.28 per litre | AED 4.04 per litre | 24 fils down |
| E-Plus 91 petrol | AED 4.21 per litre | AED 3.97 per litre | 24 fils down |
| Diesel | AED 4.80 per litre | AED 4.75 per litre | 5 fils down |
The three petrol grades each dropped by the same 24 fils, while diesel fell by a smaller 5 fils.
Fuel prices have been on a bumpy ride since the Middle East war began on 28 February. Retail prices rose more than 60 per cent before dipping in July, then climbed again from August. Before this month, the last cut came in July, after four months of increases. Even with today's drop, The National reports that prices are still up by about 80 per cent compared with February.
Fuel prices in the UAE have been linked to the global oil market since deregulation in 2015. Usually, pump prices move in step with those benchmarks, but not always. In October, Brent crude rose to a six-month high of $117.64 a barrel, and analysts had told The National they expected pump prices to rise again in November. Instead, the committee cut them, which is why the move is being called a surprise.
Several factors feed into the monthly figure, and the way prices are set varies from country to country. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have kept oil markets on edge, so the outlook remains uncertain.
Analyst Ahmed Zaheer of Qamar Energy said persistent geopolitical risks and higher freight costs support higher oil prices, while steady supply, weaker demand and a possible diplomatic breakthrough could limit further increases. Prices are announced at the start of each month, so the next figure will show whether this cut holds.
For more on this month's rates, see our UAE fuel prices November 2026 guide.
Indicative, not investment advice. Rates are mid-market. Oil is the daily close. Gold is based on the international spot price. Updated 15:21 Dubai time. Exchange Rate API, FRED, gold-api.com.

The NCM says El Niño is 96% likely to persist into March 2027, but that probability refers to the phenomenon itself, not to heavy rain in the UAE.